Being Right and Wishing You Were Wrong

When I published The Candy Store Generation in July, 2012, I included in Chapter 13 this prediction for the USA general election just concluded.

In the Senate, the Republicans will pick up some seats, and may take control. I anticipate the Senate will be close to equally divided, closer than it is now. The number of seats being defended by the Democrats almost guarantees Republican gains. However, Boomer push back against the drastic action needed to right our economic ship will mitigate this, as I explain in the next paragraph.

 

In the House, where the Republicans currently have a 49 seat edge, I expect the Democrats to pick up seats. This is where we see the main push back against drastic actions needed for fiscal responsibility. Boomers will vote in force, trying to reclaim the candy store that started to slip away in 2010. They see the drastic action required and will recoil. Cut entitlements? No way. Repeal Obama Care? No way. Use the debt ceiling as a weapon against over-spending? No way. The Boomers will vote, and will vote for the old ways. Districts that were traditionally Democratic, but which went Republican in 2010, will flip back in 2012. Not all of them, but enough to reduce the Republican majority.

For the presidency, it's a close call. However, I believe that, in the absence of some kind of major news—a domestic or international disaster—President Obama will be returned for a second term. Again, the Boomers see him as being the one who will keep the candy store open, and enough of them will vote for him to give him victory. It will be considerably closer than his win in 2008, perhaps even similar to 2000, but it will be Obama's year.

Obviously I was wrong in the Senate. It looks like the Democrats successfully held onto the gains of six years ago and added to them. The races weren't really that close. Some of this may be due to personalities (which I'll get to in a future post), but for whatever reason the Democrats held on here, and proved me wrong.

On the House, it looks like I was dead on. The Republicans retain control, with a slightly diminished majority. That's exactly what I saw happening and predicted, based on my analytical methodology.

In the presidential race, again I was dead on, the fourth straight presidential election I called. I'll quit patting myself on the back now. How I wish I had been wrong! Some have told me it's not the Boomers, it's their offspring. For sure, the youth vote was for Obama. But so many Boomers want the candy store to stay open, that this tipped the scale. The Obama edge in the youth vote is meaningless without major Boomer leading.

Also in The Candy Store Generation is an update concerning the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election, which had just concluded. Here's what I had in that update, which I got in just before publication.

Based on the Wisconsin results, the Candy Store Generation now knows how hard they have to campaign to protect their candy store. Will they fight that hard? The election is only months away.

They did fight that hard, and they won.

I wish I had been wrong in the presidential race. I was no fan of Romney, but I believe he would have been orders of magnitude better than Obama.

And that's the view tonight from flyover country.